Quote:
Originally Posted by Arletta
Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.
Boring....
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That was my reaction, too. When 22 people tied for the high win payout ($132.40), it removed my last bit of interest. (I'd been picking 50-1 shots up to then, after my initial show streak ended.)
Here are the current leaders in the other categories:
Show Streak: 26/0 (meaning picked 26 in a row but current streak is "0")
Win Streak: 11/1 (no streak of 7 or more is currently alive)
Total Wins: 19 (3 players tied with 19, 9 others with 18 wins)
Total Places: 2 players tied with 14
None of these look attractive. Take the Show Streak, for example.
Say you pick horses that have a 90% chance to show. Then your chance of putting together the 27 race streak you'd need to overtake the leader is 0.9^27 = 6%. Even if each of your picks had a 95% chance to show, you'd only have a 25% chance of picking 27 in a row, and you'd probably have the company of others with 27.
Trying to pick 12 winners in a row is probably even harder. Say each of your picks has a 70% chance to win. Then picking 12 in a row would have slightly more than a 1% chance of success. If each pick has an 80% chance to win (1-9 shots?!), you'd still only have a 7% chance of picking 12 in a row.
--Dunbar