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Originally Posted by philcski
Rewatch his last- he makes several midrace moves. He's got a big shot in here if he can come up with a similar effort. At 10,12-1 i like the chances of that happening. I disagree with your pace analysis, i expect it to be fairly swift with 3-4 that like the lead in here, likely Wanderin Boy ending up on top at the first call with MC, PT, and Bright One right there. Its No Joke should end up sitting right off that group.
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I respectfully disagree about It's No Joke's chances here. He did run OK last time though it was a very mediocre field ( the favorite Magna Graduate ran like a 10 claimer ) and the two horses with the inside/outside trips ran one-two. Sorry if I'm not getting excited about a victory over Irene's Mom who had never run a remotely competitive race prior. No horses from bhind showed up in that race whatsoever.
The simple fact about It's No Joke is that his recent efforts have been against significantly weaker opposition ( he beat that complete mediocrity AP Arrow for God's sake ) and he does not figure to get an easy trip here. I don't see him being good enough to get a winning trip here. Do you expect him to be effective sitting a few lengths off and making his move on the turn?