Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well lets see here....Summerly, Ermine, Sangrita and Joint Effort. Not a bad field at all.

Sangrita - Bejarano gets on board and the horse tries 1 1/8 for the 1st time. The last time she went longer than 1 mile was on 3/18/06 in the Florida Oaks and she finished 5th beaten easily. However, that was her 1st race after her maiden win. The last two beyers 98 and 97 are at the top of this field and this is her 3rd race in the form cycle. There should be plenty of speed in this race and I don't see her lasting the distance. For me she is a toss.

Summerly - Been running against the best in this division all year and has the class edge here. She has 2 wins and 1 third at the distance and 1 win and 1 third at Churchill. However, she is going to be near the lead and the pace will be very fast. Her top beyer is 96 back in Feb of 1995 so I believe she is not fast enough (anymore) to win this race.

Ermine - Well she has been at it since Jan of 2006. This is her 8th race this year. She gets Borel and maybe a wet track. Her beyer in her last race was 99 and that was in the slop. The time for the 1 1/16 was 1:45 not all that great. I think the beyer was a little inflated. I think she has "bounce" written all over her. This is her 3rd race in the cycle and she seems to like Churchill 3-1-2-0. She has the right running style since I think the race will be fast. I am throwing out her race in Indiana because I dont think she liked running at night. However, I think there are too many negatives surrounding her.

Joint Effort - Oh, how I LOVE this horse in this spot. I love finding little nuances in past performances. Nov 5th 2005 wins with a beyer of 94, she comes back and wins on Jan 28th 2006 with a beyer of 93. She thens throws in two clunkers. After the two clunkers she comes back and wins on May 6th and June 3rd with beyers of 103 and 96. Then she throws in two clunkers. Now she comes back after the two clunkers and runs 2nd in the Chilukki with a beyer of 94. The Falls City will be her 2nd race and looking at her pattern of running she is going to run another huge race. She loves Churchill 8-4-4-0. She is trained by Romans and riden by Guidry. The only negative is the distance. She has only gone over 1 mile twice and got beat both times. Once was the Alcibiades in Oct of 2005 and the other in the Mother Goose on July 1st 2006. I think she will be able to rate behind the pace setters and then make her move and draw away by 2.