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Originally Posted by Pointg5
Actually, I have heard and read it's 3rd off the layoff that's the best and produces the best results...
Yes, a bounce is sometimes a regression back to the mean, but his mean was not good enough to win the race, his best was, but he ran his best by a large margin in the last race and was set for a bounce...It's a theory and sometimes doesn't hold true, because these are horses not machines...
Like I said, if my laptop wasn't broken I would go back and watch the race, but I believe there was a definite rail bias, I read somewhere that they fixed the track after the Distaff(if this is incorrect someone say so), maybe that's why Invasior and Bernardini weren't effected by it...
Let's see how some of these come back and run, I think Scuds pointed out one that won already while racing wide, I think we will see many more...
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That would mean he should be sitting on a big one in the De Francis then unless you think the last two have taken a lot out of him.
That previous form was from early in the year which was essentially the extension of a long 3yo season, it isn't like he was running a 106 all year and then suddenly pulled off a 116. He could have just badly needed a break and some time to mature into a very good 4yo.