Friday, August 2
Late Pick 4:
6th: This is a wide open turf sprint stake where I can make a case for everyone except #3 Lion Down by Me. I'll use #6 Rosa Salvaje and #8 Silverette as B's and the other five as A's. I'm interested in 20-1 M/L #7 Queen Chatanika, who broke too poorly to win her last start and has three previous BTL turf sprints good enough to win this.
7th: #4 Italian Rules is the horse to beat on paper, but this isn't the kind of dropdown I can trust. Guillot and Southern Equine claimed him from John Sadler on 5/27 for $62,500, have been paying the bills on him for 2+ months, now put him in a $25,000 claimer with a $50,000 purse. That means, best case scenario, they'll get $55,000 back on their $65,000+ investment. Add to that the fact he's never run in NY, he has to be used, but he's a good favorite to play against. #1 Take Down Two is another awesome old gelding who always shows up with his race and gets a positive barn switch to Jason Servis for this. Unlike Italian Rules, he's right back in for the same price they claimed him for. #6 P J's Magical Wink is worth using in case Jacobson can get him back to his good form; he also probably won't face a ton of pace pressure today. I'll also throw in #2 Island Sunset going turf-to-dirt for Galluscio, who can be stalking a modest pace and will factor if he can return to that 5/4 effort.
8th: Not going against #1A Major Marvel in here. Cut from the cloth of Saginaw, this remarkably consistent 7YO gelding is looking for his 19th win in 49 starts and he's already had multiple good races in NY, so this is a Ramsey/Maker horse whose form you don't have to worry about transferring. Add to that the absence of any other speed in here and he's just going to be very tough to beat. I'll use the improving #5 Presumptive as a C, as his last race stacks up pretty well with what the favorite usually runs, but the lack of pace should make it difficult for him to reel in Major Marvel. I know #2 Screenplay had serious trouble in the stretch last time, but he wasn't going to do any better than 2nd behind Presumptive if he had gotten clear and he's a cut below the top two.
9th: #4 Force Multiplier easily the one to beat dropping down for Serpe and if he runs anything close to his race two-back, he'll beat this weak field in a gallop. On the other hand, he is being given away after a subpar effort, so it's worth having at least some coverage elsewhere while pressing Force Multiplier. #3 Dapper Draper was a dull 6th on the dirt here 11 days ago, but he's a half to promising turf runner Zip Up and his figures aren't far off what it would take to win this. #10 Saguaro Blossom was OK in his 7/5 try, making an early move and just tiring late against a similar group. He had no business in that NY-bred MSW last out and now Castellano picks up the mount, perhaps can beat the favorite with a more well-timed move. I'll also give #2 Make a Dream a shot getting to do what he's bred for, turf sprinting. His form is ugly, but his only turf race came off a 365-day layoff and he broke poorly and made an early move, then last out on dirt, he dueled through a fast 1/4 with a much-the-best Jacobson winner. Rudy reaches out to his go-to rider in Velasquez and perhaps he can make the lead in a race with a murky pace scenario.
$.50 1,2,4,5,6,7,8/1,2,4,6/1/2,3,4,10 $56
$.50 1,2,4,5,7/1,4,6/1,5/4 $15
$1 1,2,4,5,7/1,4,6/1/4 $15
Race 6 $14 WIN 7
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