Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.
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This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.