Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer
Can I ask again about the spotlight numbers and the star ratings now that you are live? In the free race today (Del Mar 5), the 7 horse had a 10 point edge in the spotlight number suggesting that the horse laid over the field. However, the 6 horse was the only five star in the field (and the race winner at short odds).
Do either of these metrics have value and how do you suggest they should be used?
Paul
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Paul, it's my understanding they ran tests on the Spotlight figure and found that the horse with the top Spotlight figure won at about a 30% clip with very good value in a sample of over a thousand races.
The Spotlight figure is supposed to be a best representative recent speed figure for each horse based on surface and distance.
The problem I see with them comes in a situation like the race you mentioned. Today's 5th race at Del Mar.
The horse with the clear-cut best Spotlight Figure, #7, entered the race today off of a 264 day layoff and was dropping in class from Graded Stakes company. For a horse off such a long layoff, it's hard to trust them to come right back to form. In the example of the #8 horse in that race, whom the pace projector favored, none of his three most recent races were on grass. So the computer system took the figure he ran in his shortest dirt sprint, and used that as his Spotlight figure.
I will run the idea past the guys in New York, of just using a question mark for the Spotlight figure of any horse who is entering off of a long layoff or surface switch.
The Star system is a 100% TimeformUK thing. I will find out more about the formula they use for it.