Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Rupert, you make some good points here. I won't sit here and pretend that I know the circumstances each time he enters a horse but I have always believe that stats like these were not the best way to judge Lukas. There are many times where he enters a horse in a race where winning is not the biggest objective for him. He's always been a guy that will use a race as a way of getting ready for the next one. Most trainers these days only send them out ready to win and don't use preps the way they used to. Even today, Wayne only went 1/3.
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I think he actually went to 2 for 5 today in graded stakes races. He won the grade II Dixie in addition to the Preakness. He obviously had a great day today. I agree with what you're saying in regard to just normal win percentage. He usually doesn't have his horses totally cranked up for their debuts. He will often times give them a race. That might lower his overall win percentage by a point or two.
But I don't think you can use that argument in graded stakes races. Trainers don't normally prep horses in graded stakes races.
In terms of judging the way Lukas spots his horses, it's really just a matter of what an owner's personal preference is. If an owner's personal preference is to always take chances and run 20-1 shots in big races, then Lukas might be a good trainer for that owner. There is a risk with that strategy. Horses aren't machines. They usually don't stay in form for very long and they usually don't stay sound for very long. If you run your horse over his head, at the very least you are wasting a race. In addition, your horse may not come out of the race in one piece.
On the other hand, some trainers are way too conservative. I know some trainers who only want to run their horse in a stakes race if the horse is going to be 5-1 or less. I think that is ridiculous. You need to take chances sometimes. There are extremes on both sides. I like a trainer that is somewhere in between, a trainer that is willing to take chances occasionally but not a trainer who is constantly running his horses over their heads.