[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes, that's wasn't very coherent.

The form of these 3-year-olds become more fickle as they're asked to do a lot less racing and a lot less training.

Regarding his point on the Beyer figures... here's the list of horses who had the top Beyer figure going into the Derby each year since they've been published in the DRF:

2013: Goldencents
2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarchrach - Nehro (tie)
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie)
2009: Dunkirk
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Diazo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)


Only once in the last 11 years has the top figure, on Beyers, won the Derby. But 3 times they've finished in 2nd place, and once 3rd.

Good stuff, but "Only once in the last 11 years" sounds worse than it really is. 11 years is an arbitrary cutoff. You could as easily say 'twice in the last 12 years', 'four times in the last 15 years', etc. Going back any number of years greater than 11 would produce a huge ROI for betting the Derby horse(s) with the top BSF.

--Dunbar