Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer
Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.
Paul
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If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.
There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.
The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?
The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.
The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.
I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.
The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.