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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I could be wrong, but I thought that St. Liam had run at least a 113 earlier that year. It seems odd that Beyer would force Ghostzapper's number down to 114 (from a previous 128) if St Liam had already shown he could run at a 113 level. If the Beyer guys were being arbitrary (ie, disregarding the earlier races), it would have made more sense to use something like a 118-120. That would not have been a hard-to-believe jump for St. Liam, and would have made the other horses' BSFs more believable. It's not like Beyer never gives a horse 5-10 pts more than an earlier career best.
Ghostzapper and St Liam finished more than 9 lengths ahead of the other 5 horses in the field, and I think all of them had shown themselves capable of running 100+ BSF's. But with the 114 fig for GZ and SL, each of those other 5 horses must have earned a sub-100 BSF. (or at the most, a 100 BSF)
Using 13 lengths, your approx Beyers are consistent. But 13 lengths for the 1.87 sec difference in finishing time is 7 lengths per sec. Is that your standard rule-of-thumb?
Do you have a link for that? I watched it relatively recently, too, but now I can't remember where. Thanks.
--Dunbar
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Saint Liam had gone 108/113/108 going into that race.
Seek Gold going in had Beyer's of 93/92/99 and got an 86 for his 4th place finish in the Woodward. His next three after the race were 92/99/108.
Midway Road ran a 70 Beyer that day finishing 6th. He'd run a 106 in his previous race and ran 107 next out. He ran an 83 when he stunk up the Foster two races prior to the Woodward.
Presidential Affair was last with a 53 Beyer, he hadn't been under 80 in his past 13 starts and was only under 90 in three of those.
Unfortunately I can't find figures for Bowman's Band who was 3rd and Newfoundland who was 5th.