Quote:
Originally Posted by PatCummings
I think you've capped the overall feel of the card incredibly well. This is the has the look of a day with some good value and once again, some over bet horses. Lovely Pass was way better than Music Chart last season, and Music Chart likely to go short in the Guineas...and I don't think she is anything special.
Luhaif wouldn't be the first to shock in the Guineas. Mariner's Cross was SO bad first up, just don't know what to do with him, but think that last race is a time to go against the home team. There does seem a ton of pace in that race.
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Luhaif isn't a horse I particularly like (struggling to like anything in that field) but a horse who should race handily and unlike the other horse that is likely to force the early pace (Hototo), is a definite stayer over this distance, has solid form in the book and is likely to be forgotten by the market. Do I believe she'll win? No. Do I believe she'll go off at over the odds and give me a good run for my money? Definitley.
Se I expected Mariner's Cross to run that poorly last time. He showed against Noble Mission that he has plenty of stamina and is more likely to grind out a result rather than put up a dazzling display of speed. That last race looked as though the speed would be minimal (and that's exactly how it turned out) and over a mile it just wasn't going to be a stiff enough stamina test for him. I'm at pains to include him in another mile race, but in my opinion it is weaker than the race two weeks ago and there should be plenty of pace for him to aim at and run them down late. Once again, I'm not sure if he'll win but I do expect him to go close at nice odds. But my big money won't go down until I see him over ten furlongs.