Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
I don't like Notacatbutallama at all, but his 10/1 morning line seems like a very bad line.
Just the fact that he's Pletcher and getting a jockey switch to Dominguez. The multiple stakes win on the turf shouldn't count for much of anything, but they will to some people.
Mudflaps is 3/1 on the ML and he will probably go off at about the same price.
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It proved to be way too much of a wiseguy morning line.
Notacatbutallama went off at 5/1 (10/1 ML) and Mudflaps went off at 8/1 (3/1 ML)
I don't mean to knock the ML maker Donovan -- he usually does a good job in races where horses have established form...and relatively speaking, he's a great linemaker compared to the absolute clowns who make the ML's at a lot of racetracks.
Some of the tracks in the Southwest (Texas, New Mexico) are notorious for having imbeciles making the morning lines. I've seen horses with established form who are 15/1 on the ML who are as certain as death and taxes to go off as clear cut post time favorites.
At PID, the morning lines don't even add up and some of them are based on about a 55% win takeout.