Have flirted repeatedly with authentic big payout P4/P5 chances at Gulfstream & Santa Anita the past fortnight that could have evened my personal bankroll scorecard for 2012. Year comes to a close with one final chance, a $31k P6 C/O at Aqueduct that comes with the calendar-closing 'must pay' proviso. The sequence has spots where you can narrow or make stands but also has a couple races where price plays could juice the parlay. Hope it's been a good year for everyone. Let's work to make 2013 even better... Best wishes to you and yours for a safe, Happy, Healthy New Year!
AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Sumo 8-5 (A) WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Cause I Can 8-1 (B)
3rd
Next Best: #4 Bail Out the Banks 3-1 (B)
DNF-Lost rider
Exotics Use: #1 Jet Set Cat 8-1 (X)
2nd
.10 SUPER: 3-4-6 with 3-4-6 with 1-3-4-6-8-9 with 1-3-4-6-8-9 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)
5th: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)
Interesting, competitive Starter H'cap with lurking potential for upset. Frazil the clear horse to beat exiting Gravesend and there looks to be enough pace prompting involved to give him the stalk-and-go edge he needs. After him, it gets squirrely..
Most Likely: #9 Frazil 3-1 (A)
5th
Best Value: #5 Driven by Solar 7-2 (B) WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #4 Orsonian 4-1 (C)
2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Footcandles 12-1 (C)
7th
6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
These bottom level maiden claimers frequently play out differently than they look and for that reason even money Permiele may not be the slam dunk she looks on paper. A small ticket single certainly from Jacobson and with Ramon, but Miss Conception (8-1), Attempted (12-1), Phantasticus (3-1), One Or the Other (30-1) and Buck Stops Here (6-1) all have races in their PP's or angles that hint at puncher's chance upset..
Most Likely: #6 Permiele 1-1 (A) WON ($2.70)
Next Best:
#2 SCR
Best Value: #9 One Or the Other 30-1 (B)
6th
Exotics Use: #4 Attempted 12-1 (C)
8th
7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)
What a nice group this is... #10 hole is tough spot from which to negotiate, but Sailmate gets pilot upgrade and pace to close into if Irad can work out trip. Fun race..
Best Value: #10 Sailmate 12-1 (A)
3rd
Next Best: #4 All of the Above 6-1 (B)
6th
Exotics Use: #1 Big Business 5-2 (B)
2nd
Super Add: #6 Gallant Fields 3-1 (B) WON ($9.40)
.10 SUPER: Key
10 in 1st-2nd with
1-
2-5-4-
6 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)
8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD)
Anaphylaxis' stake try behind Sportswriter would be very tough here, but am concerned he's not going to get a lot of pace up front. Under those conditions, the lean goes to Ramon controling things on Bond's Mr Cowboy..
Most Likely: #3 Mr Cowboy 3-1 (A)
4th
Best Value: #2 Anaphylaxis 8-1 (B)
2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Reggie D 5-1 (C)
10th
Super Add: #7 Ali's Winner 20-1 (X)
9th
9th:CLM, 3+, 1m-70y
Well matched group to close things out for 2012. Minescape and Terminus both entered off also-ran tries v. better in Boxing Day 7th. Will need to see if either demures..
Most Likely: #8 Minescape 7-2 (A)
5th
Best Value: #4 Truetap 6-1 (A)
7th
Next Best: #11 Point Taken 5-2 (B)
10th
Exotics Use: #5 Terminus 3-1 (B) WON ($11.60)
<$200 P6 Play:
4:
3-4-6
5:
5-9
6:
6
7: 1-4-
6-10
8: 2-3
9: 4-8
3x2x1x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$50 P4 Play:
6:
2/SCR-
6-9
7: 1-4-
6-10
8: 2-3
9: 4-
5-8-11
2x4x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
Good luck!
Steve