Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I am not disputing that she ran bad last time.
This might be a stupid question, but wouldn't the variant be a lower number if the track was that much faster, or does the variant being 2 points lower really translate to that big of a number difference?
I'm just trying to understand how they came up with the 38, because the final time, the speed figures, and the variant from the last two races are pretty close, which is why I am questioning the 26 pt difference in Beyer.
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The DRF Speed Rating and Variant is a joke.
Basically, If a horse equals a 3-year best for final time for a distance, he receives a rating of 100. Otherwise, a point is subtracted from 100 for each fifth of a second by which a horse misses the 3-year best time.
So, in other words, the 3-year best time for 7 furlongs at Santa Anita is 1:19.70 ... if a horse runs 7fs in 1:20 flat at Santa Anita, he gets a speed rating of 98.
If a horse runs 7 furlongs in 1:25 2/5ths at Michigan's Pinnacle Racecourse -- he gets a speed rating of 99 because the 3-year best time for the distance is 98.
The DRF's ''track variant'' is supposed to say how fast or slow the track was each day. But, again, the comparison of running times and 3-year bests can be misleading. If a given day's races involve cheap horses running long distances, their final times will be far off the track records. If it is a day of top-class racing at sprint distances, the times will be much closer to track records. The Form's variants will suggest a major difference in the speed of the track on those two days, when in fact there was none.