Two of the last 3 elections have been decided by a single state.
Bush saved his entire presidency when he beat Kerry 50.7% to 48.7% in Ohio in 2004. Had Kerry won Ohio he would have scored a victory with 271 points.
Obviously, Gore won the popular vote but came up a few hundred votes shorts in the state of Florida ... that was a state where George W. Bush's brother was the Gov and a lot of shady stuff went down (butterfly ballots, hanging chads) -- Gore wisely put a Jew on his ticket (Joe Libermann) to target Florida ... but it wasn't enough. Bush had the trump card there with his brother in power.
Bush got Ohio both times. Ohio saved his bacon. If either Kerry or Gore got Ohio, they would have been president.