[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

Or, a different opinion:

As always, these are the TPM poll composites, with all pollsters included, even the GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of outfits Gravis and We Ask America.

But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's Democratic direction and at the right time.

Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall.

He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House.

State Obama Romney Margin Change from 10/24

National 47.4 46.1 1.3 +1.3

Colorado 48.9 46.3 2.6 +2.7

Florida 48.5 49 -0.5 -0.1

Iowa 48.9 45.2 3.7 +2.8

New Hampshire 48.3 45.2 3.1 +2.1

Nevada 50.3 46.1 4.2 +0.3

North Carolina 46.5 48 -1.5 +0.7

Ohio 49.2 46 3.2 +0.6

Virginia 48.9 46.4 2.5 +2.7

Wisconsin 49.4 46.1 3.3 +0.5