Originally Posted by Kasept
With the Breeders' Cup now clear on the horizon, the transition from summer to fall starts this weekend with Belmont, Fairplex and Kentucky Downs/Turfway taking over from Saratoga, Del Mar and Ellis Park. Fun stakes sequences at Louisiana Downs and Arlington add to the action as well. Should be a fun, circuit-switching kind of afternoon. Don't forget the Presque Isle Masters at 7:30p ET as well...
BELMONT PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
Is there a better way to start the Fall Championship Meet than a state bred turf route? No! Typically fun, well matched set with many attractive prices to include..
Most Likely: #13 (AE) Scavezzato 8-1 ** if in
Best Value: #4 Dual Citizen 15-1
Next Best: #1 Carbon County 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Roaring Conquest 8-1
Super Add: #10 Mr. Vantastic 20-1
7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Like the race above, dotted with juicy numbers..
Most Likely: #5 Riverdance Rock 5-1
Best Value: #11 Call Up the Chief 15-1
Next Best: #2 Palace 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Solengo 10-1
Super Add: #7 Dreamsgonewild 4-1
8th:OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Royal Sighting 3-1
Best Value: #2 Garnet Street 10-1
Next Best: #5 Irish Exchange 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Expression 15-1
9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (DD)
Best Value: #5 Tennis Racket 10-1
Next Best: #7 Kathy's Kitten 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 El Corriente 10-1
Super Add: #2 Renzo Bertoni 5-1
10th: CLM, 3+, 6f
Nothing clever here..
Most Likely: #1a (POE) Classic R and B 2-1
Next Best: #2 Goodtime Boy 3-1
Exotics Use: #12 How Do I Win 4-1
Super Add: #6 My Man Dan 8-1
<$100 P4 Play:
7: 1-2-5-7-9-11
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 1-2
6x4x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
ARLINGTON PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Lord of the Roses 2-1
Next Best: #5 Pink Leninade 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 No Rules Now 4-1
Super Add: #7 No Peace at All 7-2
7th: 78th Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Pataky Kid 9-2
Next Best: #1 Muppet Man 2-1
Best Value: #7 Scissortail G 15-1
Exotics Use: #8 My Lute 3-1
8th: 78th Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (DD)
More inscrutable of the 2 baby stakes with 8 of the 14 looking capable of a win..
Best Value: #5 Sweet Redemption 8-1
Next Best: #12 Flying Rapunzel 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Custody 12-1
Super Add: #14 Pappascat 8-1
9th: ALW/N1X, 5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)
Wild finish to day and I can't help but tab Jelly Cable. Though I follow her because I was involved in her naming, she is fully capable here and a square price..
Most Likely: #11 Jelly Cable 8-1
Best Value: #9 Wild Oration 10-1
Next Best: #7 Donate 8-1
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Posh 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #1 Fire Tricks 8-1
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 1-3-5
7: 1-3
8: 5-6-12-14
9: 1-5-7-9-10-11
3x2x4x6 = 144x .50 = $72
LOUISIANA DOWNS
PRE-SCRATCHES
8th: 34th Unbridled, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Major Marvel 5-2
Best Value: #5 Sadie's Soldier 6-1
Next Best: #9 Golden Yank 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Strike King 6-1
9th: 9th Sunday Silence, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Java's Wild 9-2
Best Value: #9 Kamchatka 6-1
Next Best: #1 Brown Almighty 8-5
Exotics Use: #10 Mr. Bandini's Band 6-1
10th: 33rd Super Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)
2nd choice Bourbon Courage showed a new dimension in the West Virginia Derby and works since that placement say he may be ready for another forward move. Is as good as solid favorite Blueskiesnrainbows and twice the price. Respect Amoss immensely and Key Donation returned to previous best last time after regressing. A new jump to highest level of accomplishment yet makes him eligible for laurels. To pull out an ol' Derby Trail chestnut, Neil Drysdale doesn't 'ship on a lark' and Fly Lexis Fly may be ready for that foreshadowed aplomb..
Most Likely: #9 Bourbon Courage 3-1
Best Value: #2 Key Donation 12-1
Next Best: #3 Blueskiesnrainbows 3-2
Exotics Use: #5 Fly Lexis Fly 6-1
11th: 27th Happy Ticket, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Promise Me More 3-1
Next Best: #6 Always Kitten 7-2
Best Value: #8 My Daughter's Song 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Incredible Journey 4-1
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 3-5-6-8-9
9: 1-7-9
10: 2-3-5-8-9
11: 6-9
5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
Good luck!
Steve
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