
09-02-2012, 04:16 PM
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Keeneland
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,153
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Actual polling from this weekend:
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Normally, the Wrap takes Saturday and Sunday off, but with the Republican National Convention in the rearview mirror, we have a rare weekend edition of the Wrap to see what, if any, improvement we can see in the fortunes of the GOP ticket post-Tampa.
And, as has been the case for most of the past week, the answer is: little, if any.
Now, a caveat applies. Since the speeches come so late in the evening, there really has only one wholly post-convention day in the sampling, and that was last night.
And with that outsized tracking sample that Gallup employs (seven days), we are still at a point where the slight majority of respondents were queried about their preferences before Ann Romney and Chris Christie took the stage.
That said, there is quite a bit of evidence that the convention did not yield an outsized bounce for the Republicans, and will come well short of the 11-point bounce Romney's own campaign was flogging a while back.
On to the numbers:
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NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (44-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)
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Thus, with three tracking polls, the current average is a Romney lead of 0.3 percentage points.
On Tuesday, before the RNC began in earnest, these three tracking polls yielded an average which gave the president a lead of 1.0 percentage points.
Therefore, in the only apples-to-apples "bounce" comparison we can make, the bounce stands at 1.3 percentage points. That is, historically, a very weak bounce.
Also, given the trajectory of the data, it is somewhat hard to see how it will grow substantially.
The momentum has been with Obama in the Ipsos/Reuters tracker over both of the last two days, as Romney has lost three points since Thursday's release.
Gallup has been steady for three days, which hints that if there is any positive movement towards Romney in the last few days of polling, it has been quite muted.
Only Rasmussen (perhaps predictably) is seeing real movement for Mitt Romney.
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