Penn National's 2nd race yesterday was another example of a horse improving dramatically when he finally was allowed to set an uncontested early lead.
Much like the horse at Del Mar who destroyed the field and paid $129.40 -- this one got loose by 1.5 lengths and remained unpressed. He finished 2nd beaten just a half length at 99/1 odds.
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120830&RN=2
I have no fear of any horse just because they're getting on a surface they do a little better on. I have no fear of any horse just because they're 3rd off the layoff and might be improving a little bit.
I do have fear of horses who time and time again fail to make a loose early lead -- and who now appear likely to get that free ride on the lead for the first time in a blue moon if not ever.