Quote:
Originally Posted by South Beach Luv
Would have had to gone ALL in that last leg which was a 10 horse field to come up with him. Beaten 100.5 lengths in his 7 starts, or 14.35 lengths a race on average. Last 5 races at the very same level of MC20k
Trainer is now 1/61 on the year, and Daniel Vergara got his first win of the meet. Rough.
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Yep. Here's the form of the horse who dominated the last race of the day at Del Mar and won it by 4+ lengths and paid $130 to win.
Looks like a complete bum on paper -- he was 7th and 10th at this same class level in his last two starts. His jockey is 0-for-28 at the meet and his trainer is 0-for-60 on the year.
He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures.
He had been repeatedly used up in sprint races battling for the lead and stopping to a walk. Never in his life had he made an early lead before.
In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.
Finding himself on the lead for the first time ever, and with no early pressure to boot, he simply buried them.
Obviously, I wouldn't bet a horse like that ever. However, as someone who is a long-time veteran of betting exchanges ... I know that you NEVER ever mess around with betting against horses like that.
It's tempting for people to see how hopeless they look on paper and say 'why don't I make an easy $30 here and just give the 85/1 odds against that lousy 60/1 shot'
When a horse has never made a lead before -- is almost a lock to make a loose lead, I'm not interested in laying any price against them. That's a lesson I learned a long, long time ago in the days when the EhorseX exchange had a good deal of liquidity.