Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
The pace wasn't 'moderate to slow' -- it was fairly quick and contested.
Bourban Courage, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire with a 103 Beyer going 6 furlongs, was 13 lengths back after a quarter mile.
La Bernardin, a horse who won his debut wire-to-wire going six furlongs with a 91 Beyer, was 15 lengths back after a quarter mile.
Mountaineer is an oddly configured racetrack and you're comparing fractions at two different distances (8.5f VS 9f)
Tapizar is basically a 4yo version of Hansen. He got a loose lead and Nakatani let him go. Hansen didn't get a loose lead.
As for the raw pace figures of the two races -- they look like this...
Tapizar race: 104 95 93
West Va Derby: 100 90 89
Tapizar is not a slow horse -- he was 3rd by just 1.5 lengths after a half mile behind The Factor and Shackleford in last years Breeders Cup Dirt Mile -- a race that collaposed. The two horses last and next to last early were Caleb's Posse, who won by 4 lengths at 6/1 and Tres Borrachos 3rd at 30/1.
Tapizar and Hansen -- much like Shackleford -- are speed horses that perform much better with uncontested early leads. Tapizar ran faster, but he was loose and didn't have anyone hooping and hollering and going head-to-head with him.
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my contention is Hansen might have run better running the fractions Tapizar did if it got him loose, and 8.5 to 9.0 just is not the huge distance gap in my mind that you are making it out. He certainly was not done in because he tracked 2wide on that pace.