Bar shoes and aluminum pads are used to protect the foot and prevent pain. Their presence indicates a problem, but certainly doesn't mean the horse will run poorly.
I'd look to the surface the horse will be running upon that day - if very firm or hard, a horse with a soreish foot may not like the footing (Saratoga main track is hard compared to Oklahoma training, for example). Or may be unaffected. Auto toss? I don't think so.
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"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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