Quote:
Originally Posted by goodcopy
Give me a break,All the hand ringing and fence riding by all but a few of the so called professional handicappers is about to make me sick!
Especially on Tvg,Todd Shrupp,Rich Perloff,Dave Weaver,Matt Carruthers,Simond and all that gang and but for the exception of Jon White,Steve Byk nobody is willing to step up from a handicapping standpoint and say that I'll Have Another is the fastest horse in the race!
From a strict handicapping standpoint he has the past performance the breeding the obviously will to win and I think from a pace stand point he looks to have both tactical speed and the ability to quicken or turn of foot to close in the last 1/4 mile to over take any potential "thief"(Paynter)that might try to steal the race on the front end!
From A Beyer #(last or average)from the sheets or any other numerical speed value he is lengths ahead of Paynter(his closest)Dullahand(Likely off the pace main threat)or even Union Rags who just isn't that fast of horse(Or has the pedigree to get he distance).
These guys are trying to hedge there picks with a "Emotional"pick or who they are "Rooting"for but are trying to use anecdotal data or historical nonsense that is not congruent or applies to a handicapping perspective
Give me speed,pace,weight,jockey/trainer stats/even post position and weather for your reasons but not races against Spectacular Bid or Real Quiet,Funny Side or the other of the 11 who for whatever reason couldn't get it done because I'll Have Another is not racing those colts!  |
you can ring your hands?! that is amazing. i bet it gets annoying tho.
seriously tho, all spelling bashing aside...
the odds are simply not in i'll have anothers favor. better horses than him have gotten to this point, and something has happened....whether a better horse emerged, or a better trip, a better ride, or better luck. a lose shoe, a horse who loved the belmont surface, a bad ride, a safety pin...the list goes on and on. 11 horses since affirmed have gotten thru both derby and preakness only to come up short, by a whisker or a mile, in this race.
now, does all that affect iha's chances in this race? no. but the toll of three races in five weeks, the extra quarter mile, the fresh shooters, etc cannot be ignored.
is he the best horse? maybe. but maybe he's not. maybe he got right at the right time. maybe now he slides, maybe now he loses a step. or maybe not.
there isn't one person out there hoping he loses. but many are too wary to say he will surely win.