Quote:
Originally Posted by MaTH716
That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.
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Ideally -- John Velazquez would like a repeat scenario of the 2007 Belmont.
He had Rags to Riches in the clear and widest -- right behind a 50.32 half mile. He had Curlin down inside of him having no choice but to wait behind that slow pace.
Meanwhile, Garret Gomez was strangling Hard Spun off of the lead. Hard Spun was 3rd early behind very slow fractions and he was pulling against Gomez -- the horse and rider almost in a wrestling match.
That's the best scenario for Union Rags.
It's hard for a lot horses to accelerate when they're caught inside behind slow paces. Especially on dirt. Curlin struggled doing it.
The slow pace would also ruin Dullahan's chances...and Paynter will not win if he's being wrangled back behind a slow pace.
If Paynter wants to be forward and try and steal this race -- it's probably going to be a truly run race and that sets up for Dullahan.
The ideal scenario for Dullahan is:
* Paynter wants to be forward and goes out.
* The pace is faster than 48 seconds
* John Velazquez gets Union Rags in the clear and turns up the pressure on I'll Have Another in the middle of the race.
* Union Rags -- a Champagne winner over the track has great miler potential -- and I'll Have Another is forced to move with him or else get shuffled back and lose position.
If this happens ... Dullahan will have a great opportunity to grind them all down with his plodding late run. Some other plodder will also surprise at long odds if this scenario plays out as well.