When the pace has been slower than 48.00 in the Belmont since 2000 -- and the eventual winner has never been more than 4 lengths off of the pace.
2011 half mile of 49.08 (winner Ruler On Ice was never more than 2 lengths back. Winless in six starts since)
2008 half mile of 48.30 (winner D' Tara went wire-to-wire. Winless in all 11 starts since. Four defeats in ALW races)
2007 half mile of 50.14 (winner Rags To Riches was never more than 2.75 lengths back. Winless in only start since -- beaten as 2-to-5 favorite)
2003 half mile of 48.70 (winner Empire Maker never more than 2.5 lengths back. Winless in only start since -- beaten as 1-to-5 favorite in Jim Dandy Stakes)
2002 half mile of 48.09 (winner Sarava never more than 4 lengths back. Failed to even finish in the top 3 in all 8 career starts afterwards -- including three at the ALW level)
2000 half mile of 49.29 (winner Commendable never more than 1.5 lengths back. Winless in four career starts)
Since 2000, horses who have won Belmont Stakes while never more than 4 lengths back when the pace has been slower than 48.00 -- are a combined 0-for-30 in all subsquent races.
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