Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
im sure dullihan and romans know whats going on..funny most of the rest of the year everyone laughs at paying attention to works..
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I've always felt the workouts and training reports get too much attention leading into the Derby...but I can certainly understand why as the race is a huge event and the press really has nothing else of worth at all that they can do for two weeks leading into this race.
I like to read them, listen to them and study the information as much as anyone -- it's apprciated coverage ... but it can also be very overrated.
A horse like Union Rags looked sensational working a furlong in 10 1/5ths as a 2yo in a 2yo in training sale ... it was the 2nd fastest unblinkered work in the entire Fasig Tipton Florida sale (the nations clear-cut best 2yo sale) ... assuming such a talented and proven race horse is healthy ... why on earth would anyone be impressed that he was able to work 5 furlongs in 59.80 and look very good doing it?
All that tells you is that he is indeed healthy and appearantly holding form right now...which, again is nice to know.
Often you get very good reports for more than half the horses in the field -- and rarely is a short priced horse knocked. Hard Spun was for running off early in a fast workout, and finishing up slowly late ... one of the most negatively recieved workouts for a major contender to make the race in the last few years ... and he responded by sprinting away and almost wiring a good Derby field.
He truthfully ran the best race in that Derby, as Borel completely rolled the dice with Street Sense and shot up the rail without a straw ever in his path somehow. Had that move backfired he probably would have been lucky if he ever got another mount in the race.
Basically -- the way I judge this information -- it's impacted my handicapping of the race in the following way...
* I would have preferred to toss out Take Charge Indy and Gemologist of all of my bets ... but because they clearly appear to be the two who observers have peaking coming into this race ... I'll include them in exotics.
* Even though it's a negative -- I don't care that Dullahan trains MUCH better on synthetic than dirt. I've seen Dullahan attempt to sprint twice on dirt ... and he's a complete slowpoke who can't outrun a goat when he sprints on dirt. His route on dirt was much better. I'm still going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
* Creative Cause all of a sudden has a little bit of a red-flag. He was judged to be in absolute peak form right before he edged Bodemeister in a race Bodemeister was a late fill-in for the sidelined Fed Biz. Clearly, CC isn't judged to be near peak right now. I'll still use him in exotics though.