Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
CJ, Doug..
Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?
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Regarding which is more implausible -- a 117 for Wise Dan or a 98 for Big Blue Kitten ... I have to disagree strongly and say the 117.
A 117 Beyer in a synthetic route is a figure I never believed I'd see. It's Babe Ruth type stuff.
Big Blue Kitten is a lightly raced horse (only 8 career starts) who was a Grade 2 stakes winner on turf at age 3 and has all better than looked races this year.
This was straight from my trip notes from Big Blue Kitten's 2012 comeback race ...
After that, he catches a race where he's taken back behind a 51 flat pace set by Get Stormy ... and he catches Wise Dan on a hardcore speed bias in his next two. He's a respectable horse who could easily win a Graded Stakes race next time out. He's a safer bet to run a 98 than Wise Dan is a 117...however, I'd say Wise Dan should have got a 108 and BBK an 89.