[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I checked my PM's and CJ actually sent me his analysis of it.

Here is a quick rundown of the routes for the day. These are the figures for the day after I adjust them for the pace variant, but not the overall variant. Parentheses are for the winner, the others for the leader.


( 59 73 92) 59 73 92 Race 3
( 135 135 134) 135 135 134 Race 8
( 126 121 107) 126 121 107 Race 9

Based on the those and using that turf formula I sent you for the slow paced race (on synthetics, I still give horses credit for running too fast early like the horse in the 9th), the raw performance figure for the winner of the three races would be:

Race 3, 106
Race 8, 134
Race 9, 113

Lets use what figures Beyer gave as the projection and look at the overall variant:

Race 3, 106 - 77 = 29
Race 8, 134 - 117 = 17
Race 9, 113 - 85 = 28

Clearly, the Wise Dan race doesn't fit. If you use a 28 based on the other two races, he actually gets a 106. That certainly makes a lot more sense than a 117. He clearly didn't understand that the final times of races 3 and 9 were impacted as much by pace as they were by track speed. You might also have noticed he split the 9th from the other two based on speed figures.

I actually projected the cheaper races a tad higher than he did and settled on a variant of 27 if I was using the Beyer scale, so that is where the 107 came from. I'll get into that more this week. I also didn't project a 117 for Wise Dan of course.