Quote:
Originally Posted by horseofcourse
What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.
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i think it makes a lot of difference. if i had a horse that i thought might go for 10f, i wouldn't have him only run up to 7f beforehand, and no further. i wouldn't only have run him in one turn racing with his first around two turns in a field with 19 other horses and him going 3 extra furlongs at the same time. typically you would work towards that with longer racing beforehand, wouldn't you?
if they only planned to go a mile at most, and now, two weeks out, he's going to try for another quarter-well, just how much training would have been needed to put more bottom into a horse that they can't manage now? he's got two weeks to prepare a horse to do a lot more than he's ever been prepared to do. and you're right, it's not so much where-but i certainly feel that 'when' has a lot to do with it.
in your later post, you suggested they would try to harness him somewhat. that would be a bigger mistake than running him in the derby. to try to take him out off his game...this horse will have no chance if they try to mess with his style. i saw where he worked 5f in 1:02, that tells me they're trying to get some speed out of him. huge mistake. it's too late to try to make a 10f silk purse out of what's a sprinting sow's ear. they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.