And the others...
TRAVOLTA
3 g Handsome Ransom - Belongs In Lights
Trainer: John Kiernan
Jockey: Mark Hills
9 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
4th G2 Avondale Guineas
A talented horse who ran a really good race in the Avondale Guineas, and it looks like he's peaking at the right time. But he was convincingly beaten by the first three in the Guineas, and I don't expect him to turn the tables on them.
MR CHEZ
3 g Duelled - Tittletaat
Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Jockey: Sam Spratt
10 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 3 thirds
4th Geelong Classic (AUS), 10th G1 Victoria Derby (AUS), 6th G2 Avondale Guineas
This guy seems to hardly ever run a bad race, but the fact that he's only had one win in his career so far makes it hard to see him as a real winning chance.
CARRICK
3 g Shinko King - Sunday
Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue
Jockey: Leith Innes
4 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
3rd G2 Avondale Guineas
Never further back than third in his life, and he looks like a strong, tough 3yo. He also handles off tracks, which it looks like it might be (again!). But he has to improve significantly on his Guineas effort to threaten Silent Achiever.
GUESS WHAT
3 g Danroad - May Storm
Trainer: Paul Shailer
Jockey: Noel Harris
7 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
4th G3 Waikato Guineas, 11th G2 Avondale Guineas
I really liked this guy's run in the Waikato Guineas, and I started to think he was a nice Derby longshot. But I expected him to improve in his next start, the Avondale, but instead he went backwards. Not a likely winner.
NINE PIN
3 g Pins - Tantara
Trainer: Leo Molloy
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
12 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
No major races
This horse is really nicely bred, but his performances so far haven't really reflected that. He has to take a massive step up here.
ROAMIN
3 g Spartacus - Mintelle
Trainer: Robert Priscott & Clayton Chipperfield
Jockey: Trudy Thornton
14 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
5th G2 Avondale Guineas
This horse seems to be improving, with his last two starts being a good win and a career-best effort for 5th in the Avondale. But I don't think he's improving enough to be a real factor.
BARNEY
3 g Duelled - Light A Candle
Trainer: Anne Herbert
Jockey: Craig Grylls
6 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third
6th G2 Championship Stakes, 7th G3 Waikato Guineas
Solid galloper who always tries hard. I think he could win a nice race at some point in his career, but I don't think this will be it.
COLORADO SUN
3 g Strada - Denver Night
Trainer: Shane Crawford
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
6 starts: 1 win, 0 seconds, 3 thirds
8th G2 Avondale Guineas
His Avondale effort was OK, but it was a long way from the level needed to win a Derby. His odds are 100-1, and that seems fair. He might be a nice stakes horse one day, but tomorrow's not that day.
JEROBOAM
3 g O'Reilly - Sexy
Trainer: Graham Richardson
Jockey: ??
5 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third
No major races
I actually really like this guy as a future G1 horse, but I think the Derby is coming just a bit too soon for him. He's never faced this quality of opposition before, and I don't think he's quite ready to compete with the big boys just yet. But Richardson's the in-form trainer of the summer in NZ. It seems almost every horse he saddles up wins. So you never know.
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