Quote:
Originally Posted by joeydb
Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.
I did have a couple of questions:
1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?
2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?
I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.
Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.
Joe
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Question #1: There are situations where they are much more likely to occur -- but it shouldn't be something you can easily predict before a race for the simple fact that speed duels are so destructive and even the most incompetent of jockeys know this.
Question #2: Most every horse has a preferred running style. I judge how efficient they just ran in a race by looking at running styles and pace figures. I have read Brohamer's book, but I don't use his style of pace analysis.
* For a front-running horse ... the most efficent race they can run comes when they're on an uncontested early lead while running a pace figure that is within their typical range of comfort and they're not being hard-rated by the jockey. A lot of jockeys can screw-up when they get loose early by trying to rate too much.
* For a speed horse who doesn't have to be a front-runner ... the most efficent race is either the one described above or a clear stalking trip about 3/4 of a length to a 1 1/2 lengths off of an inferior pace setter.
* For a mid-pack type horse ... the most efficent possible race they can run is when speed horses are hooked up in-front of them and setting a strong pace - meanwhile they're gapped back in a clear and isolated position with no one else less than 2 lengths behind them. This trip will ensure a peak result and an absolute max speed figure.
* For a deep closing horse ... the most efficent possible race is obviously when a fast and hotly contested early pace is happening up front. That's all a deep closer can ask for. It will even help the deep closers cause a lot more if there is no mid-pack runner gapped in a clear and isolated position.
Those are the most efficent trips that lead to peak performances and peak speed figures. An efficent trip is just a clear trip in a race where the pace dynamics didn't work against the runner.
If you can identify a legit track bias ... horses who run races with a most efficent trip and are aided by a path or speed bias at the same time ... they make sensational bet againsts. Betfair tip #1.