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Originally Posted by eurobounce
Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.
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Other than in the Stephens,it is a mistake to think he was all out in any of his races this year.In the San Vicente,and the Carryback,he had to make his own pace(not what he is best at.)In the Bay Shore,the race is won by the time he hits the top of the stretch.He is under wraps late in the San Miguel.That race is by far his best effort ever,and the Beyer on that is so far off that it is hysterical. He has raced 5 times this year.The Stephens is a well known toss race.He simply has no competition in the other 4 races.This is why it is hard to say how good he really is. When a horse wins easily like that,the beyer is not going to represent the horse's capabilities.After all,isn't this the reason Chalky Dino is such a huge choice in the classic? He has won so easily that the beyers don't represent what people think he is really capable of doing.That better be true,because Invasor is damn close on figures.So,if you go by figures alone,then Invasor is gunna be right with Chalky Dino,and TM Bling is too slow.