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Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May
Euro, I tend to agree with you about his chances (I'm going back and forth), but if memory serves correct there is only one Grade 1 race for three year old sprinters - the Kings Bishop so I'm really not sure of that reason. The connections danced a lot of the big sophomore sprints early in the year - Stephens, Bay Shore, Carry Back - and Baffert wants him fresh so they shelved him. I'm not a huge fan of the layoff, but that's what Baffert wants, so who am I to question it? THe connections obvously think he is Grade 1 capable because he's in here, but what other Grade 1's would they have run him in without stretching him out?
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Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.