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Originally Posted by Kasept
About to head to Louisville, and thought I'd post my pre-draw rabkings of the races which is on the home page... Tear 'em up.. Talk to you from Louisville late tonight or Thursday a.m.!
Steve
RANKING THE CUP CONTENDERS
With the draw Wednesday, here are our current views of the Breeders' Cup fields based on form and value as measured against liklihood of success. (Top 5 represent our current preferences for horses to be used in keys and boxes). Final selections Friday...
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Now this is a way to list horses! Not by likelihood of winning, but by value. If I am interpreting your list correctly, you are saying that Gatorize does not have a better chance of winning than Cash Included or Dreaming of Anna, but that Gatorize's chances are much bettor than her likely odds, while Dreaming of Anna's are less than her likely odds.
Thanks for posting these.
I've only looked at 3 races closesly, but here is the way I'd list them, also in order of value:
Sprint:
1 Thor's Echo
2 Bordonaro
3 Malibu Mint
4 Attila's Storm
5 WarFront
6 AreUTalkinTome
7 NightmareAff'r
8 TooMuchBling
9 SirenLure
10 Lewis Michael
11 Friendly Island
12 Pomeroy
13 Kelly's Landing
14 Henny Hughes
(we have 3 in common in the top 5; and 4 in the top 6)
Distaff:
1 Sharp Lisa
2 Baghdaria
3 LemonsForevr
4 Round Pond
5 HappyTicket
6 AsiSiempre
7 Pool Land
8 Balleto
9 Hollyw'dStory
10 Pine Island
11 HealthyAddict'n
12 Bushfire
13 FleetIndian
14 Spun Sugar
Yikes, not much in common here. My first pick for value is your next-to-last!
(I've left off Summerly in my line, so far)
Classic:
1 Super Frolic
2 (Geo Washington)
3 Premium Tap
4 Lawyer Ron
5 Bernardini
6 (David Junior)
7 Perfect Drift
8 Invasor
9 Sun King
10 Giacomo
11 Lava Man
12 Brother Derek
13 Flower Alley
14 Suave
Another case of 'your last is my first'! But I put Super Frolic at about 30-1, so the 50-1 provisional ML looks good. Pinnacle's 80-1 looked even better. (I used the ML's you listed for comparison with my own line.)
The Europeans are in parenthesis because of the extra uncertainty with them. I will probably not bet them, but I want to give them the benefit of the doubt when evaluating other horses's chances.