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Old 10-31-2006, 01:43 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Yes you have missed stuff. I have no problem with Mike Battaglia. Its the incessant compulsiveness about family heritage in horses and people via Cunningham.
I still think you were way off base with what you reacted to in this thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
I think making lines is very interesting. Battaglia is one of the few guys that actually attempts to make his odds lines realistic by making them add up to 1, or the whole (sometimes). You never see this sort of thing from phony lines like equibase.

They rarely ever give a horse odds of over 20-1 or odds lower than 8/5 at smaller tracks, so they are basically horribly unrealistic and of no value. Just a waste of space and time.
Yeah, it does annoy me when their odds don't add up. But a morning line shouldn't add to 1, IMO. It should attempt to reflect the betting odds, which means it should add to 119% for a 16% track take. (117.6% for a 15% track take). The lines in Equibase do exceed that, but sometimes not by that much. I just checked a few at AQ that are in the 122% range. In the past I've seen odds totals as high as 135% or worse.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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