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Originally Posted by philcski
Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?
I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?
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Echo of Light is one of the more talented horses in the mile IMO... he's kind of hit or miss though... he's either explosive or he bombs out...