I hear all that and wasn't questioning his ability (don't know one way or the other and I trust your judgment), but if he's getting poor mounts, then what's to say this horse was any different? It's not like he was ignored because of who was riding. . . if a middle of the road guy was aboard, would the price really have been that much lower? The trainer didn't have a winner over the past five years either. . . I think we agree that the horse was impossible beforehand, and I think we can both point to little things to suggest him after the fact, but I can't beat myself up about a horse like this.
I'm sort of interested in the sire angle, though. . . I never seem to have the best luck with huge longshot angles, probably because the sample size is so small when you uncover something and has to be huge for it to bear out, but the fact that the sire had two first time turfers at 50-1+ this year is at least something to keep an eye on. Here's the other one:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...int=on&src=tdn
He hasn't been in New York for long (previously in MD), so maybe this is something to keep an eye on going forward. . .