Quote:
Originally Posted by tector
Well, I had small piece of Take Charge Indy pre-race. I took your suggestion on Liaison. I am hoping he will appreciate the dirt more.
I like the bozo in that thread who called futures a "sucker bet". First I am still WAY ahead on futures for having Concern back in the BCC back in the day. Second, I have had tremendous value on a few occasions, most recently Eskendereya at a 100-1. If I had been so inclined (I wasn't) I could have easily converted that ticket to very substantial cash a week or two before the Derby. When I see a dumb generalization like his, I know I am dealing with a true idiot.
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Future bets in general are bad bets. Ask any race book manager whether these are hugely profitable for them. I assure you that we all know the answer.
Your claim that they are good bets are based on you hitting a bet about 20 years ago as well as the fact that you got 100-1 on a horse who never made the race.
The Eskendereya example is a perfect illustration. Did you get good value when you made the bet? Yes. Would I have taken that bet a few weeks out from the Derby? Yes. But, in the end, did you cash the ticket? The simple answer is no. There is no value in a losing ticket.
Future bets are sucker bets because you are betting on a horse who may never run. Unlike race day, there are no scratches or refunds. How many examples do we have in the last few years alone where probable favorites scratch from the Derby in the weeks or days leading up to the race. It is not just Eskendereya. Would you have taken 100-1 on I Want Revenge or Uncle Mo in April?
People will hit future bets. Sometimes they hit for serious money. But far more often than not, they will lose. Call me a bozo, but I usually like to know something about the race track, the track conditions, the post positions, and whether a horse will actually run before betting. This game is hard enough with that knowledge.
I will renew my original offer. Pick any horse from the Wynn list and I will happily book any and all future bets.
Paul