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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
This makes a lot of sense. Look any horse, such as Commentator, who didn't debut until August of his 3YO year, and has since made 11 starts in 27 months clearly has issues. I would guess it is some combination of what most people have surmised in this thread.
I'll say this about Commentator, and obviously I am biased and will be rooting for him for personal reasons, while he is hard to bet in this race, and trouble at the start or not last time, his ability to rate is dramatically in question, he has a couple of races under his belt that would blow this field apart. Do I honestly think he will win? Not really. However, at the 15-1ish he will be, I think it is fair to say he is one horse in this race who's actual chances of winning exceed his odds. He is very much the forgotten horse.
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I've been a huge fan of Commentator for a couple reasons, one being he's probably the most talented NYB of all time, two Farmer is one of the easiest owners to root for out there. That being said, he's got a couple things working against him that as much as I want him to be a key play on the day scare me off: (1) if he misses the break at ALL, he seems to lack interest, and that's no easy task in the world's fastest race, and (2) no wins at 6F, which is a virtual necessity in the Sprint. Not a chance I leave him off multiple race tickets, however- 20-1 is too valuable for perhaps the most talented horse in the field. I REALLY want to see him win this race...
If he runs back to his Belmont sprint races (this year's debut in the restricted stake or last year's optional claimer tour-de-force), watch out!!