[ateamstupid]

Saturday (continued):

Turf
Dean's Kitten has turned into a very nice turf horse, but he probably can't compete with the quintet of Euros in here. It's pretty amazing that So You Think is running in the Classic, where he has no hope, since he would've toyed with this field. There's very little separating the top four in here, but I prefer Sea Moon and St. Nicholas Abbey, followed by Await the Dawn and Sarafina, who's a confusing favorite. I'm of the mind that Midday is better going a little shorter, so I'll make her a C along with Dean's Kitten.

Juvenile
Union Rags will be tough to beat on his A race, but there are two others I find interesting in here. Take Charge Indy is an asburd overlay at 30-1 and is bred to be a monster on dirt. Hansen is the wild card, coming into this off two blowout Turfway wins, and normally I'd be wary of a horse like him, but there really isn't much speed in here, so he's a legitimate wire-to-wire threat. Those two are the only ones I can envision beating UR on his best. Crusade would've been interesting in the Juvy Sprint, as his dam was a seriously fast six-furlong horse who went off favored on the '07 F&M Sprint. Creative Cause and Alpha could conceivably win this if Union Rags doesn't show up.

Mile
Goldikova is obviously a sentimental favorite, but she looks to tower over this field on paper as well. Anybody who says she's lost a step probably hasn't actually looked at her races this year, because she's just as good as ever. She'll provide no value, but I'm not going to spend a lot of money trying to beat her. Byword is better going longer than a mile, and he's been beaten twice (albeit narrowly) by Goldikova going nine furlongs. I can't see him downing her at her preferred trip. Strong Suit has a much better chance at the upset, and his last race was scary good. The outside post doesn't help him, and the fact that he missed a six-furlong blowout this week is a major handicap. He'll be a C for me, along with Courageous Cat.

Classic
Flat Out is the horse for me. His last four races are all tremendous and he's the only one of the three favorites to have proven himself at the distance. Similarly to Royal Delta, he's an immensely talented horse who finally appears to be healthy. All reports are that he's doing outstanding this week and he's a steal at 5-1 or so as the most likely winner. Havre de Grace is a terrific filly and is clearly second most likely. The distance is a question mark, but she shows up with a top effort every time she runs and projects to sit a good trip just off the early speed. Uncle Mo may have the most talent in the race and could benefit from slow splits, but aside from his Kelso, where he was loose in the mud in a four-horse field, he doesn't have a race fast enough to win this. His Juvy was a fantastic run, but it's becoming more and more apparent that he didn't have much behind him that day. He'll be a C for me, as will To Honor and Serve, with Flat Out my A and HdG a B.

Good luck everyone.