IMO, if Lava Man is going to run his race and be a factor to win, he has to be dueling or alone on the front end. I realize that CD is souped up on the big racing days, but it still doesn't play as speed favoring as the CA tracks have been this past year. That even goes for the turf races he won as well.
I see the most likely pace pressure coming from Lawyer Ron, he is an obvious run-off type who cannot make 10f. Also, if he was being put in here with serious consideration to win, J. Velazquez would be named to ride because Flower Alley has looked like ass in his recent starts.
Bernardini and Invasor should get the dream trips here, sitting 3-4-5 early and waiting to pounce. This is all considering that fact that Lawyer Ron goes out with Lava Man, if he doesn't, Nakatani should be able to slow down enough to hold off the cavalry charge.
An unknown for me is George Washington.
I think on the bottom half of tri/supers is very interesting. Its hard to see any complete throw-outs entered here. My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...
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