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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I never understood the philosophy of "beating the favorite." What does this mean??? If you think a horse can win then who cares if it is a favorite or not. I never handicap a race trying to find a way to "beat the favorite." I handicap a race and I choose the horses I think can win regardless of odds.
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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I still dont understand. If you have 10 horses in a race, you are trying to beat 9 others with the horse than you think is going to win. Who cares what the odds of the other horses are as long as your horse wins.
One of the toughest thing to understand for a gambler is the concept of risk vs reward. Keep in mind your quote says "think a horse is going to win".
If you were to run the race you were betting 100 times, how many times do you think your horse would win. This should define what odds you are willing to take on that wager. If you think the horse would win 40 out of 100 you should not bet this horse at even money (if you think it is 80 out of 100 you should bet it at even money). If in that same race you think a different horse will win the race 10 out of 100 times and his off odds are 20-1 you should make that bet. In the long run you will make a profit if you can accurately predict the risk vs reward for each of the horses in a race (that is obviously not so easy).
The Pk3 / Pk4 is a whole other ball game as stated prior.
Food for thought.