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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
always remember too, that beating the favorite in the first leg of the pick-3 is almost always more valuable than beating the favorite in the last leg of the pick-3, unless that last favorite is odds-on or something.
people like to stay alive on the first leg -- if you can get a bomber in the first race, and then even go fairly chalky in the next two legs, you'll be good to go.
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That is my philosopy in the pick 4 and 6. I want to be "alive" going into the last leg. I could care less if it is 1/2 shot in the last. Just get me there alive. But with the pick 3 and looking at Bern being on just about every pick 3 ticket, I think the value is trying to find someone else in that leg. If I don't hit the first or second I am only out $48. If I am alive going into the last leg of that pick 3 then my $48 ticket is looking pretty good even though I dont have Bern.