Quote:
|
Originally Posted by King Glorious
What I said was that Sun King has been facing weaker horses this year than last year. I didn't mean each individual horse. Of course, Invasor is better than most of the ones he faced last year but overall, I think he faced much better race in and race out than he's faced this year.
|
I can understand that, as overall this has not been a strong year for older horses, but I also think Sun King has clearly put in some better performances this year, especially recently, than last year. Even his Woodward was probably better than any race he ran last year.
Believe me, I am not overly optimistic about Sun King's chances in the BC Classic, and think he is at best likely to sneak into a lesser spot. Certainly if either Euro transfers his turf ability to dirt, something I consider pretty unlikely, they will beat Sun King, and Invasor and Bernardini figure to be formidable foes. I do believe Sun King will finish ahead of Lava Man, and not necessarily because I feel he is a more talented horse, but I believe the race sets up much better for him. The truth is I am biased towards Sun King....I have loved him since his debut, his trainer is a close friend of mine, and his owner's wife is very nice to me...how can I not root for him?
But, honestly, looking at the pps I don't see what is illogical about Sun King. I am happy to take my chances against the Euros, Brother Derek is OK, and actually ran well last time, but the race dynamics don't suit him and when you add the extra distance in he hardly rates to beat Sun King, Flower Alley is a joke, Giacomo is absurd, Lawyer Ron is certainly interesting on the huge trainer switch but also has the wrong running style for the race and has never been successful against even moderately talented horses, Perfect Drift is showing signs of age and is nowhere near as fast this year as previous years, Premium Tap also has the wrong running style though he is an improved animal, Suave is hard to take but perhaps has an outside shot on his best but also does his best running on the pace and Super Frolic has similar problems but does appear to also fit into the superfecta mix as his races have been at least faster than most on a relatively consistent basis. Remember something about Sun King, he has shown dramatic improvement specifically when allowed to drop back and make one run, and that is exactly the style that gives him a shot to at least get a reasonable piece of the purse.