[Hwjb]

George Washington is by some way the best European horse travelling to Churchill Downs this year but he's not straightforward. It was a commercial decision of Coolmore's to run him in the Classic, one I can't see paying off. The way he is ridden, that is held up, using his explosive turn of foot to kill of the opposition is unlikely to prove as effective on the surface and, just as likely, he may resent the kickback and sulk. Either way I think it's long odds against him reproducing his outstanding turf form in the dirt. That said, if by some chance he does, he would be the only horse capable of giving Bernardini a race.

David Junior has been very sparingly campaigned this year, and will arrive a fresh horse. Certainly don't have a problem with the highly capable Brian Meehan preparing one off a break - indeed DJ's best effort came on a return from a 5 month absence - and I would rate his chances of acting on the surface in advance of those of GW's. His Dubai success was impressive, but the race perhaps wasn't the greatest G1 ever held. He had legitimate excuses in the PoW next time, before picking up in fine style to win the Eclipse at Sandown. That form, albeit still short of his Champion Stakes success over Pride and the Dubai win, has been franked, with runner-up Notnowcato subsequently winning the International, and Ouija Board, Aussie Rules and Blue Monday all going on to win since. For all that he is clearly high-class, he probably just lacks the requisite class relative to Bernardini and George Washington. May well not stop him from running in to the first 4, though.