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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The problem with a horse like Premium Tap in match-ups ( and I'm sure I don't have to explain this to you ) is that he has a running style for this race that makes even a reasonable finish difficult. He figures to have to fight it out at least reasonably early with some of the top guns and still have enough left to deal with the decent closers.
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After looking again at his last 3 races, I don't see that Premium Tap's running style is particularly ill-suited to this race. He is clearly a horse that does not need the lead. In the Ky Cup Classic, in particular, he showed he could sit comfortably in 4th until called upon to move up. Yes, he will have plenty of company looking for a good stalking position, but it's also true that the deep closers are going to have to be very lucky to get through that mass of horses near the front without having to go 6-wide.
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Truly, the above argument is also why I say he has " no " chance in the race. First of all, while I do think he's improved, and publically said before the Woodward he was the one longshot I would recommend in the race, he does not fit the race dynamics along with being too slow.
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In the Woodward he beat 2-3 horses who will race in the Classic. He ran a nearly eye-to-eye race with Second of June for the length of the Woodward. It does concern me that the last furlong of the Woodward was slow. But as far as "fit[ting] the race dynamics", I don't see him hindered any more than the rest of the group that will be forwardly placed, which includes all the serious contenders. Premium Tap, as opposed to some, has had the opportunity to exhibit considerable grit in his last 2 races.
In the Ky Cup Classic, the check/clip cost Premium Tap at least 4 lengths, IMO. Without the incident he is an easy winner.
None of this is to say he has much chance to win the race. But aside from the theoretical debate, we are arguing over the difference between, say, 1.5% and 4%. It's that distinction that determines whether getting 40-1 is a great bet or a lousy bet.
BTWind, if you haven't taken a recent look at the Ky Cup Classic, please do.
--Dunbar