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Originally Posted by dalakhani
Island Fashion wasn't as good as either of these fillies and she ran quite nicely in the 2004 big cap just getting beaten by Southern Image. Southern Image would have little trouble against any of the older males today.
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IIRC, Southern Image was never in danger at any point in the race and won quite easily. Island Fashion was able to finish ahead of a bunch of horses that didn't belong in the race. From that standpoint, it was one of those opportunistic spots I mentioned.
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Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are a lot closer in quality to Bayakoa and Gorgeous than Morning line is to Criminal Type or Ruhlmann.
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Only in terms of consistency. Certainly Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are slower than Bayakoa, etc. on speed figures.
Two males have tossed out 113 Beyers this year. It's dubious that those numbers are repeatable, but it suggests that there's some separation from the older female division when the males run to their best.
The consistency issue is why I suppose there would be an opportunistic spot somewhere for females to do well vs. males. I don't think the Whitney will be that race, however. Maybe a nice Grade 3 like the Iselin or the Hawthorne Gold Cup.
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Which handicap race run this year would Blind Luck or Havre De Grace not have been among the first couple of choices?
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That's not the issue. Of course, they'd get bet. The issue is whether or not they would have won any of those races.
Thus far, the only handicap that maybe was ripe for a female in retrospect was the light Oaklawn Handicap. But Havre de Grace seems to show her best at 8.5f, not 9f, so it's still a good possibility that the mighty Win Willy would have come and got her.