I think the older mare division is pretty tough and right now both the older male and 3YO male division look pretty weak (compared to last year also), but I don't think any of these mares are going to be able to be able to win the Classic (for example). They might not even be very competitive unless they clunk up for a piece.
It's still early in the season and some of the older males are not firing on all cylinders yet. A few horses are still likely to step forward. If no one is doing any serious running in 2-3 months, then it might be a consideration.
The gap between high level older males and females going 10F on dirt is fairly large on average. IMO it takes a GREAT mare to be competitive in the Classic.
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