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Originally Posted by oracle80
Its not scary at all Dunbar, and every smart player knows that the only way to have a chance to win is to create value and bet against what you perceive to be bad favorites.
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Just to be clear, when I wrote "how scary can that be?", I was refering to BTWind's comment that people like to pick longshots on the Internet that they'd never bet at the window. I was saying that if you structure your bets reasonably, your bets on longshots should be small enough to not be particularly scary.
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Originally Posted by oracle80
The "trap" here is that being able to handicap a race effectively is the first step in this. Simply betting random longshots isn't the way to go. Having a good knowledge of horses ability and running styles is the first step in isolating possible live long shots to either win or complete gimmicks.
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No argument here.
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Originally Posted by oracle80
If you knew me well enough, you'd know that I make the same statement about certain favorites having no shot as often as I do longshots. In last years BC sprint I said the same thing about Lost in The Fog. I said the wicked pace I predicted would hurt any chance he had.
I think that handicapping is the primary key in finding a live longshot, and the opinion someone has one what kind of chance any horse has, is the key in determining which longshots are live.
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Not disputing any of that either, except the approach that a horse has "no shot". It's maybe a matter of semantics. I like to think in terms of every horse having a shot. The key is finding those whose odds are attractive, regardless of whether it is a fav or a longshot.
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Originally Posted by oracle80
Slot, in the last decade for a while, "value handicapping" was the rage for a while. Guys weer told to make their own morning line, and only bet horses who were overlaid according to that line.
The problem is that what if you think a horse should be 10-1 and hes 20-1 and you don't think the horse stands a chance in the world? Do you bet him?
**** that!!!
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This makes no sense to me. How can you "think the horse should be 10-1", but also "don't think the horse stands a chance in the world"? The whole point of making your own line is to come up with your own estimate of each horse's chance of winning. Once you make a line with a horse at 10-1, you are saying that that horse has a 1/11 chance of winning the race. It makes no sense to then turn around and say the horse has no chance.
I'm not trying to be insulting here, but I think you are confused about what making your own line means. You say something equally confusing with this:
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Originally Posted by oracle80
I'm sorry but betting 40-1 shots that you think should be 20-1 who you still feel have no chance, is not the way I prefer to go.
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If I think a horse "should be 20-1", it means I think he has a 1/21 chance of winning. That's not "no chance". I don't get your thinking here. You are not looking at making your own line the same way I do.
--Dunbar